Rising Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Sparks Fears of Armed Clash

Mounting apprehensions have emerged about the potential of armed conflict involving East African neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Current Remarks from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and implied the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been confined to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for sea access labeling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of reclaiming lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown training completions of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle ensued, ending with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a announcement that the war was concluded – a decision that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated once more.